"Low interest rates no longer inspire fantasies of a happy world based on renewable energy, equality, and autonomous central banks. In 2023, the global economy will transition into a War Economy, when sovereign economic gains and self-reliance will trump globalization." This is how explicit Saxo Bank's report on the black swans for the coming year is.
Black swans are events that ostensibly could not be predicted, that have a significant socioeconomic impact, and that, once they have occurred, are evaluated with hindsight and become predictable.
Here are the ten "crazy" forecasts of a Danish bank:
1. A multibillion-dollar coalition establishes the next "Manhattan Project," a trillion-dollar energy initiative.
The ever-increasing demand for energy compels the world's wealthiest to begin a research and development effort of a scale not seen since the Manhattan Project gave the United States the first atomic bomb.
2. President of France Emmanuel Macron resigns
After the 2022 election, the political impasse in France and the emergence of Marine Le Pen will force President Macron to leave politics and resign from office.
3. The price of gold reaches $3,000 after central banks fail to curb inflation.
The price of gold jumps to $3,000 as markets and central banks understand that the notion that inflation is temporary is false and that prices will remain elevated for longer.
4. The European Union establishes its own military force
The European Union resolves to build its own armed forces to defend itself against different geopolitical threats, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, in light of ongoing issues in the region and the U.S. military's failure to play its traditional role as global defender.
5. One nation commits to prohibiting all beef production by 2030
In an effort to become one of the world's leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one nation chooses to not only levy a hefty charge on meat but also to outlaw its domestic production.
6. The United Kingdom holds a referendum on Brexit
Following a recession and intense domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is involved in political turmoil that will culminate in a referendum to reverse Brexit.
7. Extensive price controls to restrain official inflation
According to history, wartime economics include rations and price regulations. And this time is no different, as rulers begin to implement stringent price controls that have numerous unforeseen effects.
8. OPEC+ and "Chindia" withdraw from the IMF and agree to trade in new reserve assets.
As a result of the fluctuation of the U.S. dollar in nations who do not consider the U.S. an ally, sanctions on Russia have wreaked havoc worldwide. To escape this, they exit the IMF and establish a new reserve asset.
The USD/JPY exchange rate is locked at $200 while Japan restructures its banking system.
After the difficulties encountered by the Japanese yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to halt the currency's decline. In the absence of sustained success, Japan will reset its entire financial system. The USD/JPY exchange rate increases to $160 and $170 as public outrage over soaring inflation approaches a fever pitch. When the USD/JPY rises above $180, the government and central bank set a limit of $200.
Tax haven ban eradicates private capital.
Increased emphasis is placed on national interests and the power of sovereign nations to assert themselves as a result of the conflict economy. In this sense, OECD countries focus on tax havens and ban them outright, pulling out all the stops.
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