Unless the Fed Does This, the U.S. Economy and S&P 500 Will Crash

The main reason to be optimistic about avoiding a Fed-induced recession next year was removed. Pay raises in September, October, and November pushed wage growth above the Fed's 2% inflation objective.

The only way the U.S. economy can escape a hard landing and a greater loss for the S&P 500 is if the Fed raises its inflation objective – at least in practice. The Fed may be inclined to stop raising rates, but additional cooling is needed.

RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas told IBD that the 2% inflation target "is a lot more elastic than the Fed is letting on"

Brusuelas says the Fed must raise unemployment to 6.7% to restore 2% inflation. Getting to 3% inflation would require a jump in unemployment to 4.6%, costing 1.7 million jobs.

"If the Fed is hellbent on 2% inflation, that may need more rate hikes and a higher terminal rate," said Merrill & Bank of America Private Bank's Joe Quinlan. "There may be too much monetary tightening," causing a U.S. economic and earnings recession.

Quinlan also sees bullish potential. If inflation falls below 3% and Fed policymakers "take their time," stocks should rise.

"In two years, the new Fed inflation target might be 3% to 3.5%. All sides agree that's possible."

Comments

Hal Finney's wife talks about a Bitcoin charity event

She said that the goal of the event is to raise money to help people with ALS. Hal Finney's wife, Fran Finney, has planned a charity event to help people with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Finney talked about the event on Twitter and told Bitcoin users that they should run a half marathon and post about it on social media between January 1 and January 10, 2023, to help raise money to fight the disease. Fran Finney sent out the news through Hal Finney's official Twitter account. She had previously reactivated the account to keep it from being deleted when Twitter got rid of old accounts. "Running Bitcoin" is being held with the help of the ALS Association Golden West Chapter. It was named after Hal Finney's first Bitcoin tweet, which was sent just a few days after Bitcoin went live in 2009. On its website, the organization says that it helps people with ALS by giving them loans of equipment and educational materials. The charity said that it wants to use the...

In response to customer abuses, Wells Fargo and the CFPB reach a $3.7 billion settlement.

With regard to checking accounts, mortgages, and auto loans, Wells Fargo and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau reached a $3.7 billion settlement. Some of the misbehavior occurred as recently as this year. The CFPB announced in a statement that the business was compelled to pay an unprecedented $1.7 billion civil penalty as well as more than $2 billion to customers with 16 million accounts. Many of the "necessary activities" connected to the settlement, according to the San Francisco-based bank, have already been finished, it was stated in a separate statement. In its statement, the government stated that the bank's illegal actions caused its customers to suffer financial losses totaling billions of dollars and, for many of them, the loss of their homes and vehicles. Consumers' auto and mortgage loan fees and interest rates were improperly assessed, their vehicles were wrongfully repossessed, and the bank misapplied its customers' payments to their loans. Th...

Dollar rises to a five-week high on Fed hawkishness ahead of Jackson Hole.

The US dollar index rose to a new five-week high on Monday after another Federal Reserve official signaled that aggressive monetary tightening would likely continue ahead of the central bank's key Jackson Hole symposium this week. After Russia announced a three-day halt to European gas supplies via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline at the end of this month, the euro fell to a new five-week low, exacerbating the region's energy crisis. China's yuan fell to its lowest level in nearly two years after the central bank cut key lending rates, adding to a slew of monetary easing measures aimed at bolstering an economy battered by COVID-19 restrictions and a property crisis. The US dollar index, which compares the greenback to six rival currencies, including the euro, rose to 108.26 for the first time since July 15 and was last up 0.074% at 108.23. This comes after a 2.33% gain last week, its best weekly gain since April 2020, amid a chorus of Fed policymakers emphasizing the importance ...

Search This Blog