The far right is likely to win Italy's next election, which would be the biggest change in Rome's government in decades.

On Sunday, Italians will go to the polls for a quick general election, which is likely to lead to a far-right party taking charge of the government. This would be a big political change for a country that already has a lot of economic and political instability.

Before September 9, when a blackout period started, polls showed that a right-leaning coalition would win the most seats in the lower and upper chambers of parliament, which were both smaller than usual.

The far-right Fratelli d'Italia, which is led by Giorgia Meloni, is in charge of the alliance (Brothers of Italy). It has three more right-leaning parties: Matteo Salvini's Lega, Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia, and Noi Moderati, a smaller party that is part of the coalition.

The Brothers of Italy party stands out, and most people think that it will get the most votes for a single party. Poll aggregator Politiche 2022 says that it is getting about 25% of the vote, which is much more than its closest right-wing ally, Lega, which is expected to get about 12% of the vote.

On the center-left, the former Prime Minister Enrico Letta leads the Democratic Party, which is expected to get about 21% of the vote. On the other hand, its coalition partners, the Green and Left Alliance, More Europe, and Civic Commitment, are expected to get fewer than 10 percent of the vote.

Mario Draghi quit as prime minister in July because he couldn't get a divided group of politicians to agree on his economic plans. So, the election was held quickly.

Who are the "Brotherhood of Italy"?

Giorgia Meloni, who is in charge of Fratelli d'Italia, could be Italy's first woman prime minister if her party wins the election. She would also be the first leader from the far right in Italy since Benito Mussolini took power a hundred years ago.

Carlo Ciccioli, president of Fratelli d'Italia in the eastern Italian province of Le Marche, told CNBC that the party's sky-high popularity had "spread to the rest of Italy" and that it was now ready to take charge.

"Right now, it looks like we're the biggest party in the country, but nothing will be certain until Sunday's election. Why do I think Fratelli d'Italia will be successful? Because our leaders have real value. Jouma Bercetche said that Giorgia Meloni knows a lot about both culture and politics.

Fratelli d'Italia was started in 2012, but it has its roots in Italy's neo-fascist movement of the 20th century, which started after Mussolini, the leader of fascism, died in 1945.

Fratelli d'Italia was started by Giorgia Meloni and other members of Berlusconi's People of Freedom (PdL) party. The first lines of the Italian national anthem gave it its name.

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Since then, the party has become more popular and now has more members than the populist party Lega. It has been popular with people who are worried about immigration, Italy's relationship with the EU, and the economy. Many migrant boats crossing the Mediterranean end up in Italy.

Analysts say that the party's popularity is partly due to the fact that it didn't join Draghi's recent broad-based alliance.

Wolfango Piccoli, the co-president of a risk consulting firm, wrote in a recent note that this made Meloni stand out "as an outsider in the political system and as the only person in opposition."

How and where it started

Fratelli d'Italia has often been called "neo-fascist" or "post-fascist" because its policies are similar to those of Italy's fascist era, which were nationalist, nativist, and against immigration.

Meloni, on the other hand, says she got rid of all the fascists in the party. In the summer, she said that Italy's right-wing had "put fascism in the trash can of history for decades."

At the very least, the party's beliefs are socially conservative, since it opposes gay marriage and supports traditional "family values." Meloni said in 2019 that she wants to protect "God, country, and family."

Fratelli d'Italia no longer opposes the euro in Europe, but it still wants EU reform to make the EU less bureaucratic and less important in Italian politics. One of its slogans, "A Europe that does less, but does it better," sums up its plan.

On the economic front, it has agreed with the center-right coalition that the next government should lower sales taxes on some goods to help with the cost of living crisis. It has also said that Italy should renegotiate its Covid recovery funds with the EU.

Fratelli d'Italia has been pro-NATO, pro-Ukraine, and in favor of sanctions against Russia, while the Lega has been on the fence about these measures.

But the party has also been friendly with one of the EU's biggest enemies, Hungary's President Viktor Orban. The party backed the autocratic leader after a decision by the European Parliament said that Hungary was no longer a democracy.

Center-left politicians are worried that a government led by Meloni could change ties with the rest of Europe. Enrico Letta, the leader of the Democratic Party, told CNBC's Steve Sedgwick that Italy has two options in Europe: stay in the top tier of economies and governments or be "relegated.

The first choice is to stay in what is called the "first division." The first part talks about Brussels as well as Germany, France, and Spain, which are the most important countries in Europe and were also founders like us.

The second option is to be moved down to the second division with Poland and Hungary and stay with them against Brussels, Berlin, Paris, and Madrid, he said at an economic event in Ambrosetti at the beginning of September.

He said, "I think picking the second division would be terrible for Italy."

Several experts have called Meloni a "political chameleon" because her political views have changed over time.

Wolfango Piccoli of Teneo asked in a September note, "It's unclear which Meloni will lead the government: the one who praised Hungary's Viktor Orban or the one who backed Mario Draghi's anti-Russia stance?"

"The sovereigntist who pushed for Italy to leave the euro or the reassuring leader who took a more traditional view of Europe during the campaign?"

"The populist who wanted to stop the illegal flow of immigrants with a naval blockade in the Mediterranean, or the more responsible conservative leader who wanted a European solution?" he asked.

Since Italy is known for having had 69 governments since World War II, there is likely to be some instability and volatility after the election. This is because the right-wing alliance of FdI, Lega, and Forza Italia is likely to have disagreements.

"Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi will put pressure on coalition partners and try to get back in the spotlight after a (possible) election loss by focusing on policy differences like austerity, pensions, and sanctions against Russia.

"Soon after the election, there will be policy disagreements and personal rivalries, which will cause chaos and make the new leadership less effective," Piccoli sai